STOCHASTIC MODELING OF DELAY PROPAGATION IN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS FOR CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION

Valeriy Polyanov; Victor Atuchin

doi:10.26577/JMMCS131320269

Authors

Valeriy Polyanov Railway Transportation Management Faculty, Siberian Transport University, Novosibirsk 630049, Russia
Victor Atuchin Research and Development Department, Kemerovo State University, Kemerovo 650000, Russia Laboratory of Optical Materials and Structures, Institute of Semiconductor Physics, SB RAS, Novosibirsk 630090, Russia Department of Industrial Machinery Design, Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk 630073, Russia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26577/JMMCS131320269

Keywords:

virtual coupling, freight trains, minimal headway, stochastic disturbances, timetable reliability, discrete-event simulation

Abstract

The minimal headway for virtually coupled (VC) freight trains operating under stochastic timetable disturbances on the Trans-Siberian Railway is investigated. By analyzing empirical data from the Oy-Mos section, we identify distinct delay distribution patterns for regular freight (Erlang), heavy-haul (chi-square) and extra-long trains (Weibull). Using a hybrid discrete-event simulation (DES) and Petri net model, the impact of reduced headways (up to 3 min) on the capacity and timetable reliability is evaluated. The results reveal that headways below 6 min trigger secondary delay propagation, while 6-minute intervals are optimal for the capacity without compromising robustness. The adjustment of the interval from 13 min in the current automated blocking system to 7 min allows for a 54.2% increase of capacity for regular freight trains, 53.3% for heavy-haul trains, and 58.6% for extra-long ones. The proposed framework integrates real-world disturbances into the VC planning, offering a novel approach to the freight railway optimization.

Author Biographies

Valeriy Polyanov, Railway Transportation Management Faculty, Siberian Transport University, Novosibirsk 630049, Russia

Valeriy Polyanov – Railway Transportation Management Faculty, Siberian Transport University (Novosibirsk, Russia, e-mail: polyanovvv@mail.ru).
Victor Atuchin, Research and Development Department, Kemerovo State University, Kemerovo 650000, Russia, Laboratory of Optical Materials and Structures, Institute of Semiconductor Physics, SB RAS, Novosibirsk 630090, Russia, Department of Industrial Machinery Design, Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk 630073, Russia

Victor Atuchin – Research and Development Department, Kemerovo State University; Laboratory of Optical Materials and Structures, Institute of Semiconductor Physics, SB RAS; Department of Industrial Machinery Design, Novosibirsk State Technical University (Novosibirsk, Russia, e-mail: atuchin@isp.nsc.ru).