MODELING METHODS FOR STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF INTERREGIONAL INEQUALITY IN KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract

The article focuses on spatial economic development and regional inequality in the Republic of Kazakhstan, with an emphasis on the factors and policy conditions that create disparities between regions. The empirical analysis is based on a panel of 16 Kazakhstani regions for 2001-2017 (272 observations). The dependent variable is the logarithm of GRP per capita.  Modifications of the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with fixed and random regional effects are estimated and compared; according to the AIC/BIC criteria and the Hausman test, the fixed-effects SDM is recognised as the preferred specification. Econometric estimations in SPSS and STATA18, along with spatial and GIS analysis in R, are used for preprocessing and classical econometrics. Diagnostics include the Hausman test, checks for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, and panel stationarity tests. The analysis identifies dominant spatial determinants of uneven socio-economic development of Kazakhstan’s regions and supports institutional and economic-geographical policies for reducing inequality.